Are you staying up all night? With what bottle for comfort or celebration?The BBC, in an article entitled [url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32633099]Election exit poll puts Tories ahead[/url], wrote:UK election exit poll predicts Conservatives will be largest party in a hung parliament, with 316 seats to Labour's 239
UK General Election in May 2015
UK General Election in May 2015
Re: UK General Election in May 2015
Could someone explain why 316 to 239 results in a hung parliament? Is ~57% of the vote insufficient in the UK?
Glenn Elliott
Re: UK General Election in May 2015
Because to get business done a government needs to command a majority in the House of Commons. For technical reasons — it’s complicated — that’s typically 323 seats. And 316 isn’t quite there. So the Conservatives will need friends in the House: and there are two obvious candidate parties.
Re: UK General Election in May 2015
326, not 323.jdaw1 wrote:Because to get business done a government needs to command a majority in the House of Commons. For technical reasons — it’s complicated — that’s typically 323 seats. And 316 isn’t quite there. So the Conservatives will need friends in the House: and there are two obvious candidate parties.
The most important result that we all need to focus on is that I have the Conservatives for £50 at 11/2 with Paddy Power for an overall majority. Ten more votes than the exit poll suggests will buy me a case of Claret.
"The first duty of Port is to be red"
Ernest H. Cockburn
Ernest H. Cockburn
Re: UK General Election in May 2015
Back on topic - I am about to open a T85 to see me through to the early hours.
"The first duty of Port is to be red"
Ernest H. Cockburn
Ernest H. Cockburn
Re: UK General Election in May 2015
Most of your mistake is in assuming we have a two party system - we don't. 316 seats is only 49% of the available seats, and normally much less than 49% of the popular vote.Glenn E. wrote:Could someone explain why 316 to 239 results in a hung parliament? Is ~57% of the vote insufficient in the UK?
"The first duty of Port is to be red"
Ernest H. Cockburn
Ernest H. Cockburn
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Re: UK General Election in May 2015
There are 650 seats; 316 & 239 are just the predictions for the two largest parties, and 316/650 is less than 50%.Glenn E. wrote:Could someone explain why 316 to 239 results in a hung parliament? Is ~57% of the vote insufficient in the UK?
Re: UK General Election in May 2015
A Northern Irish party (the political wing of a terrorist organisation funded until September 2001 by New York, Boston and Chicago) typically gets four seats, and refuses to take them. Further, the speaker is traditionally neutral. So though theoretically there are 650 seats, in practice there are 645. Hence 323 is a majority.
Re: UK General Election in May 2015
Fair.jdaw1 wrote:A Northern Irish party (the political wing of a terrorist organisation funded until September 2001 by New York, Boston and Chicago) typically gets four seats, and refuses to take them. Further, the speaker is traditionally neutral. So though theoretically there are 650 seats, in practice there are 645. Hence 323 is a majority.
"The first duty of Port is to be red"
Ernest H. Cockburn
Ernest H. Cockburn
Re: UK General Election in May 2015
And it’s good night from me. Presumably the result will be known at about breakfast time, though I’m not saying on which day.
Re: UK General Election in May 2015
Good night. I am keeping with tradition and will stay up all night to watch the results coming in and then fall asleep an hour before the the outcome is announced.jdaw1 wrote:And it’s good night from me. Presumably the result will be known at about breakfast time, though I’m not saying on which day.
T85 is very good, even though not given the time in the decanter that it deserved.
"The first duty of Port is to be red"
Ernest H. Cockburn
Ernest H. Cockburn
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Re: UK General Election in May 2015
Still here also, though no bottle.
Would like to see exit poll prediction vs actual result when known on per-constituency basis, to evaluate poll accuracy; they only seem to be showing the result (and variation from 2010) once known, and prediction for a few as exemplars. Can't see per-constituency exit poll data anywhere on line - anyone?
Would like to see exit poll prediction vs actual result when known on per-constituency basis, to evaluate poll accuracy; they only seem to be showing the result (and variation from 2010) once known, and prediction for a few as exemplars. Can't see per-constituency exit poll data anywhere on line - anyone?
Re: UK General Election in May 2015
Aha, yes that would be the mistake. Completely forgot about that. Carry on!DRT wrote:Most of your mistake is in assuming we have a two party system - we don't. 316 seats is only 49% of the available seats, and normally much less than 49% of the popular vote.Glenn E. wrote:Could someone explain why 316 to 239 results in a hung parliament? Is ~57% of the vote insufficient in the UK?
Glenn Elliott
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Re: UK General Election in May 2015
That swingometer graphic just swung by way more than 0.2% !!
"Here's the swing..." It should barely have moved!
"Here's the swing..." It should barely have moved!
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- Dalva Golden White Colheita 1952
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Re: UK General Election in May 2015
And it seems a 1.5% change is moving the needle by about 20 degrees...
I'm going to get some sleep while a few more results come in, and hope that the mathematical accuracy of the graphics improves in the meantime! (No breath-holding)
I'm going to get some sleep while a few more results come in, and hope that the mathematical accuracy of the graphics improves in the meantime! (No breath-holding)
Re: UK General Election in May 2015
Majority now declared - Claret for DRTDRT wrote:I have the Conservatives for £50 at 11/2 with Paddy Power for an overall majority. Ten more votes than the exit poll suggests will buy me a case of Claret.
"The first duty of Port is to be red"
Ernest H. Cockburn
Ernest H. Cockburn
Re: UK General Election in May 2015
It used to be said that Tories drank Claret and Whigs drank Port.DRT wrote:Claret for DRT
Re: UK General Election in May 2015
Does the fact that I drink both make me a Liberal?jdaw1 wrote:It used to be said that Tories drank Claret and Whigs drank Port.DRT wrote:Claret for DRT
"The first duty of Port is to be red"
Ernest H. Cockburn
Ernest H. Cockburn
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- Dalva Golden White Colheita 1952
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Re: UK General Election in May 2015
I thought the Whigs were what became Liberals? It looks like we might need some new opposition now though - perhaps it's time for Derek the Whig to take a stand?DRT wrote:Does the fact that I drink both make me a Liberal?jdaw1 wrote:It used to be said that Tories drank Claret and Whigs drank Port.DRT wrote:Claret for DRT
Re: UK General Election in May 2015
He’s a Tory — he drinks Claret.PhilW wrote:Derek the Whig
Re: UK General Election in May 2015
Julian,
Unfortunately Sinn Féin/I.R.A. is still funded in those cities. My brother lives in N.J. And he has been asked to attend numerous fundraisers just because he's Irish. He tells them where they can stick it! I'm a Labour supporter what am I supposed to drink? No rude answers please!
Unfortunately Sinn Féin/I.R.A. is still funded in those cities. My brother lives in N.J. And he has been asked to attend numerous fundraisers just because he's Irish. He tells them where they can stick it! I'm a Labour supporter what am I supposed to drink? No rude answers please!
- djewesbury
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UK General Election in May 2015
Good day all. I drank Gould Campbell 83 and Churchill Agua Alta 87. The latter was better. It had a pleasant green note that I found very satisfying at the finish.
Daniel J.
Husband of a relentless former Soviet Chess Master.
delete.. delete.. *sigh*.. delete...
Husband of a relentless former Soviet Chess Master.
delete.. delete.. *sigh*.. delete...
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Re: UK General Election in May 2015
A pity; I had a new Viz character in mind - Derek the Wig - "What are you looking at you bald ponce, pass me the port and a half of head'n'shoulders"jdaw1 wrote:He’s a Tory — he drinks Claret.PhilW wrote:Derek the Whig