2011 Declarations

[RAYC]

If Graham 1994, rated 96 by Parker and 95 by Suckling, is available to the end consumer at the best part of £10 per bottle cheaper than Graham 2011 (but with the best part of two decades of professional storage behind it), this suggests to me that it is commercial realism as much as "respectfulness" that is governing port en primeur prices.

Fantastic for us while it lasts, and no doubt something the port producers hope to change through their efforts to promote the profile of port (and i wish them best of luck in their efforts, since this is their livelihood), but i don't buy that prices are kept low out of any sense of altruism.

[jdaw1]

By request of RAYC, previous three posts moved from 2011 Vintage Port review thread.

[Glenn E.]

I believe machine made bottles started as early as the late 1800s?

surely by 1979 there were no longer making them by hand or did i miss read?

You mis-read.

Since the British measurements pre-date the US ones, it would be entirely plausible that the "fifth" came into usage in the US because it was a common bottle size in the UK and that only the name was derived from the US gallon. (And that, perhaps, as an act of rebellion.) Remember, bottles were hand-made in those days.

One might interpret this section to refer to the late 1700s or early 1800s. The term "fifth" was in common usage by the late 1800s, so clearly originated before then and before bottles were commonly machine made.

Standardization to the "metric fifth" only took place in 1979, but was also in widespread use long before it was official.

[Eric C]

I´ve been informed, that Quinta Seara d´Ordens declared 2011 Vintage https://www.facebook.com/DerPortweinberater

[Alex Bridgeman]

Taking Graham as an example, the 2011 is the most expensive vintage in the UK going back to 1985 and it is only once you get back into the 70s that prices really jump (best retail prices per case from reliable source in the UK (from winesearcher pro): 2011 - £470, 2007 - £420, 2003 - £390, 2000 - £415, 1997 - £340, 1994 - £375, 1991 - £370, 1985 - £520, 1983 - £450, 1980 - £514, 1977 - £600).

Do we know what the volumes of production were in each of these vintage years? I have a theory that the volumes of declarations have been shrinking recently. If that is the case, we might see this very well known (at least to us port buyers who are long in the tooth) dip in prices as ports close down become less pronounced as smaller amounts of port are traded on the secondary market in the first 10-15 years after release.

And honestly, who wants to buy the 1997 vintage these days. It's not very enjoyable to drink now and still needs 10 years before it hits its stride. It really ought to be cheaper than other vintages since it does not have the advantage of known provenance when ready for drinking nor the advantage of being ready for drinking now.

If anyone can add volumes to Rob's post, I would be really interested.

[Alex Bridgeman]

Noval and Noval Nacional are now officially declared.

[jdaw1]

Noval and Noval Nacional are now officially declared.

It would be better if that were mentioned on quintadonoval.com. Indeed, attempting to sign on to the newsletter produces ‟Cette page n'existe pas, vous allez être redirigé vers la page d'acceuil”. Sigh.

[djewesbury]

Where is the declaration listed, or is the information from a personal communication?

[djewesbury]

Found it
http://www.christianseely.com/2013/05/1 ... tage-port/

[Alex Bridgeman]

Where is the declaration listed, or is the information from a personal communication?

I've got the press release, but can't upload pdf files. However, the text reads:

QUINTA DO NOVAL DECLARES THE 2011 VINTAGE

This week, iconic Port producer Quinta do Noval announces the declaration of not only its 2011 classic Noval Vintage, but also the rare Nacional Vintage ”“ last seen in 2003, almost ten years ago.
‘Immediately after the foot treading in the lagares that September, we knew we were in the presence of what could be a great vintage year’, explains Managing Director Christian Seely. ‘The 2011 wines - many made from our replanted sites, now well into maturity - showed excellent aromas, with the true deep rich colour we look for in a wine with magnificent ageing potential. Over the past eighteen months the wines in cask have lived up to that expectation, and we are delighted , and proud, to make this declaration.’
Ironically, 2011 was a difficult and challenging year in the vineyard. Above average rainfall through the previous winter had replenished the underground water reserves, which compensated for the erratic climate through spring and summer ”“ heat waves, high nocturnal temperatures, strong drying winds and virtually no rain. Until the end of September, when the harvest began.
However, Noval decided to postpone picking for a week or so, to allow the vines to take advantage of this longed-for water, and the fruit to reach full maturity. It turned out to be the right decision, enabling this late harvest to take place in glorious, hot sunshine.
The resulting wines are already demonstrating their unique Noval pedigree. Of the Noval classic Vintage, Technical Director Antonio Agrellos says: ‘Very seductive ”“ a wonderful balance of intense concentration and delicacy with complex aromas redolent of violets, and fruit with purity and freshness.’. Looking at the Noval Nacional, he comments: ‘A strong distinctive personality with a brooding presence, where the tannins are powerful yet refined and the fruit very intense and concentrated. A balance that explodes in the mouth....’

[RAYC]

Taking Graham as an example, the 2011 is the most expensive vintage in the UK going back to 1985 and it is only once you get back into the 70s that prices really jump (best retail prices per case from reliable source in the UK (from winesearcher pro): 2011 - £470, 2007 - £420, 2003 - £390, 2000 - £415, 1997 - £340, 1994 - £375, 1991 - £370, 1985 - £520, 1983 - £450, 1980 - £514, 1977 - £600).

Do we know what the volumes of production were in each of these vintage years? I have a theory that the volumes of declarations have been shrinking recently. If that is the case, we might see this very well known (at least to us port buyers who are long in the tooth) dip in prices as ports close down become less pronounced as smaller amounts of port are traded on the secondary market in the first 10-15 years after release.

And honestly, who wants to buy the 1997 vintage these days. It's not very enjoyable to drink now and still needs 10 years before it hits its stride. It really ought to be cheaper than other vintages since it does not have the advantage of known provenance when ready for drinking nor the advantage of being ready for drinking now.

If anyone can add volumes to Rob's post, I would be really interested.

2011 - 8,000 cases
2007 - 6,000 cases (source: Wine Spectator TN)
2003 - 9,000 cases / 8,500 cases (sources: Roy Hersh TN and Wine Spectator TN respectively)
2000 - 9,000 cases (source: Suckling TN)
1994 - 11,000 cases (source: Wine Spectator TN)

I don't know whether you were being tongue-in-cheek about the 1997 vintage, but although it is 10 years away from hitting its stride, its 16 years closer than the current 2011s with professional storage fees paid for approximately 13 of those (£100)! In terms of your point re: provenance, most of the prices quoted are for cases that have never left bond. Of course, quality of vintage is another matter.

[djewesbury]

One thing that nobody has mentioned is the diminishing beneficio. Isn't the very tiny size of the 2011 vintage a combination of factors, the decision to limit supply by the producers PLUS the (possibly, prior) decision to limit supply by the IVDP? And what weight should we give to each of those factors?

[jdaw1]

I don’t think that they’re ‟limiting supply”. Instead VP has ceased to be relevant, except as a promotional tool for lower-grade massive-volume wines. E.g., GST will sell about 140 dozen, at about £60 a bottle retail. The whole lot is about £100k, a bit more than the Symingtons will spend on flights and trade fairs promoting it, but not by such a large margin. We care about VP. What we write and promote (‟Shipper Xxxx is The Dog’s”) is what matters. Selling a few dozen to us for what feels like £lots to us, and feels like £nowt to them, just doesn’t matter.

[RAYC]

Vintage Port is the icing on the cake...our main business is LBV and other styles

I'd be surprised if a class of port that accounts for 2% (?) of total port production would be particularly affected by the beneficio. Plus, in historic terms (i.e. looking at more than a 10yr trend), beneficio levels are not particularly low. I think the beneficio throughout most of the 1980s was under 80,000 pipes.

[DRT]

One thing that nobody has mentioned is the diminishing beneficio. Isn't the very tiny size of the 2011 vintage a combination of factors, the decision to limit supply by the producers PLUS the (possibly, prior) decision to limit supply by the IVDP? And what weight should we give to each of those factors?

The Beneficio can never affect the volume of VP produced. VP is a tiny fraction of what is pumped out of the Douro. The Beneficio is agnostic when it comes to Port style, so the only impact it has is in what grape growers can sell. If the IVDP decide that only 20 grapes can be used for Port and the producers need 18 for their VP there would be 2 grapes left for everything else. The reality is that the Beneficio allows many trillions of grapes to become Port and only a very few million become VP.

Selling a few dozen to us for what feels like £lots to us, and feels like £nowt to them, just doesn’t matter.

Nail on the head. Let's not get carried away with ourselves here. We buy a reasonable amount of the top end wines that these guys produce, most of which we buy on the secondary market so the producer sees exactly nothing from those purchases. The distributors that were allocated very small amounts of GST (who happen to be the life blood of the producer because they also sell many millions of gallons of cheap stuff) will have done the natural thing and allocated those bottles to the customers who spend the most money with them. Not something that should surprise anyone who has ever done business.

I appreciate that it is frustrating that some of us have been unable to bag a case or two of one of the rarest wines ever produced, but let's not bite the hand that feeds us.

[Alex Bridgeman]

I don't know whether you were being tongue-in-cheek about the 1997 vintage, but although it is 10 years away from hitting its stride, its 16 years closer than the current 2011s with professional storage fees paid for approximately 13 of those (£100)! In terms of your point re: provenance, most of the prices quoted are for cases that have never left bond. Of course, quality of vintage is another matter.

Thanks for the volumes - less noticeable reduction in volume than I was expecting.

And no, I wasn't being tongue in cheek about the 1997 vintage. If I buy 1997 now I am looking for a very keen price AND confidence in the storage conditions. I will have to hold on to this for 5 years before I really want to start drinking them. I am prepared to pay a premium for wines bought on release so that I know I have them and also know that I will not be a risk of buying wines which have been poorly stored - but completely accept your point that most 1997s being offered these days have been kept in temperature controlled bonded warehouses since being shipped.

[Alex Bridgeman]

Taking Graham as an example, the 2011 is the most expensive vintage in the UK going back to 1985 and it is only once you get back into the 70s that prices really jump (best retail prices per case from reliable source in the UK (from winesearcher pro): 2011 - £470, 2007 - £420, 2003 - £390, 2000 - £415, 1997 - £340, 1994 - £375, 1991 - £370, 1985 - £520, 1983 - £450, 1980 - £514, 1977 - £600).

I've been really interested in the shapes of pricing curves for vintage port for some time, but never put into practice what I had observed when it came to buying port. So purely out of interest, I thought I would extend Rob's pricing data back a few more vintages (my prices are per case, in bond):

• 2011 - £470,
• 2007 - £420,
• 2003 - £390,
• 2000 - £415,
• 1997 - £340,
• 1994 - £375,
• 1991 - £370,
• 1985 - £520,
• 1983 - £450,
• 1980 - £514,
• 1977 - £600,
• 1975 - £500,
• 1970 - £945,
• 1966 - £1,150,
• 1963 - £1,550,
• 1960 - £960

[Chris Doty]

The G94 remains one of the greatest values in vintage port. 11,000 cases produced is likely keeping a cap on prices, which is great for us. Had it a few times at the Lodge the other month -- still primary and a bit closed, but starting to shed some of the fat and is clearly going to be a long lived and delicious port.

Along with the Vesuvio, outrageous QPRs.

AHB -- want to PM me your source for the case of 1960? Seems like a tempting price!

[jdaw1]

Fact sheets for Quinta do Noval 2011 (‟best drunk 4 to 40 years after bottling”) and Quinta do Noval Nacional 2011 (‟best drunk 5 to 50 years after bottling”).

[TLW]

Taking Graham as an example, the 2011 is the most expensive vintage in the UK going back to 1985 and it is only once you get back into the 70s that prices really jump (best retail prices per case from reliable source in the UK (from winesearcher pro): 2011 - £470, 2007 - £420, 2003 - £390, 2000 - £415, 1997 - £340, 1994 - £375, 1991 - £370, 1985 - £520, 1983 - £450, 1980 - £514, 1977 - £600).

I've been really interested in the shapes of pricing curves for vintage port for some time, but never put into practice what I had observed when it came to buying port. So purely out of interest, I thought I would extend Rob's pricing data back a few more vintages (my prices are per case, in bond):

• 2011 - £470,
• 2007 - £420,
• 2003 - £390,
• 2000 - £415,
• 1997 - £340,
• 1994 - £375,
• 1991 - £370,
• 1985 - £520,
• 1983 - £450,
• 1980 - £514,
• 1977 - £600,
• 1975 - £500,
• 1970 - £945,
• 1966 - £1,150,
• 1963 - £1,550,
• 1960 - £960

It would be an interesting exercise to do this across all of the major houses, and I wonder whether Graham may be an anomaly amongst the 3-5 majors. Taylor, which is probably regarded by most as somewhat more desirable than Graham on average (matter of taste), has the following price curve:

2011 480
2009 390
2007 477
2003 690
2000 691
1997 450
1994 936
1992 1397
1985 520
1983 564
1982 529 ??
1980 593
1977 945
1975 484
1970 1133
1966 1124
1963 ca 2000
1960 1200
1955 2400

This is very rough - having a couple of assumptions, amd is mostly based off of the FRW website, and a couple of others (1963 is a guess, and is now almost unobtainable). On this basis, it would appear that the best value for money in Taylor - if one can be comfortable with the provenance - would be the 2009, the 1997, and possibly the 1985. I have not done it for Fonseca, but it is simple enough to do, and probably looks much like the Taylor.

This suggests that if one is an afficianado of Taylor or Fonseca, buying en primeur works out better than it does for one who prefers Graham. However, for us lifelong Graham lovers, this works out well, as there seems to be surfeit of highly cellarable - and drinkable wine at attractive prices. Having not had the 94 Taylor, I wonder whether this is more than twice as good as the 1994 Graham, which is a very pleasant drink.

This is one of the reasons that I so value the tasting notes on this site, and mostly ignore the Parkers of the world.

Finally, I would find it difficult to pay the same price for a 1960 Graham that I would for a 1970 Graham (provenance being equal).

[djewesbury]

Has anyone else seen notes on the Skeffington? Or perhaps those who were at Noel Young today had a chance to taste it? This is on the Nickolls & Perks website:

Starting with the Skeffington(91-93) which I learnt was a name given to celebrate the historic 19th century partnership between Charles Neville Skeffington and the Yeatman family. This was a good introduction to the serious quality this vintage is offering. With cool charm and great freshness in the fruit, leaving the finish long.

[g-man]

i believe they're pouring them on june 6th when i'll be going to the tasting

i'll keep track to post a note.

[RAYC]

It would be an interesting exercise to do this across all of the major houses, and I wonder whether Graham may be an anomaly amongst the 3-5 majors. Taylor, which is probably regarded by most as somewhat more desirable than Graham on average (matter of taste), has the following price curve:

Going back to 1980, there are only a few anomalies of which i am aware:

Dow 2007 - £670
Taylor 2003 - £630
Noval 1997 - £2000
Noval 1994 - £900
Taylor 1994 - £940
Fonseca 1994 - £840
Taylor 1992 - £1250
Fonseca 1992 - £580

The reasons for these are a combination of points, scarcity, and the "Taylor-effect".

But let's say that in 1996 you had invested £400 in an inflation-linked saving certificate instead of buying 1994 port en primeur. At the end of 2012 you would have had in the region of £650 and have saved on port storage fees for 15 years (currently £8-10 per case, if you are like me and have to store cases professionally due to lack of space). That's £750-800 of spending power that you would have now for 1994 port if your investments had done no better than match inflation...

That said, i do think that AHB's point is valid and that there is reason to believe that buying 20 to 30-yr old port will not be as cheap in future:

- production was significantly higher in the 1980s. Bruce Guimaraens made the point at BFT that 1985 was the last vintage which TFP had held back in a significant enough quantity to support large ex-cellars releases

- port buying habits have changed. Large institutions used to buy significant stocks of port to lay down. Over the last 10 years, a lot of these have made their way to market.

However, my gut feeling is that - absent a spike of interest from the East - it will be a long and very gradual process (and, of course, i suspect the price of en primeur will simply peg any rise in the price of back-vintages!)

I should also note that my own purchasing habits for vintages 2007 onwards display a flagrant disregard for this logic.

[djewesbury]

Croney & Barrow had their internal tasting of 2011s last Thursday, the 16th; but as yet, still no offer from them.

[Alex Bridgeman]

There will also be a Maynard's 2011 and a Quinta da Dona Matilde 2011 port from Barao de Vilar.