1972 Port

[Glenn E.]

I think the 1940 Graham is nearly equally overpriced and unreasonable - look at the above price for a 1937 Kopke again for comparison.

Kopke has historically been among the best at managing price vs sales volume. They have a legendary reputation to protect, and to do so they need to maintain stocks of old wines not just for this generation and the next, but for the ones after that as well. I don't like their pricing because it is very much at the high end of what I can tolerate, but I respect what they're doing because they're doing it well. They ride the high end of the market and have been doing so ever since I've been drinking Port.

Taylor and Graham aren't expanding the market for Tawny Port with their pricing, unless you consider trophy buyers to be an expanded market. And let's be honest about it - £455/$600 for a 75cl bottle of a 50 year old Port is trophy pricing, absent the scarcity of Port from that particular year. And even with the scarcity it is very much out of whack when comparison shopped - I just purchased a 1971 Taylor Single Harvest Tawny, directly from Taylor's wine school at World of Wine (so not in any way discounted), for 255 EUR. That is equally as scarce as a 1972 and felt like a high but reasonable price for what it was. £455/$600 does not feel reasonable in any way, even if they're down to their last barrel. A price like that is for trophy hunters only, not for Port drinkers, and I think that bringing in trophy hunters does not help the market but rather harms it.

before this new trend for premium Single Harvests shifted the dial

That's just it - the only thing "premium" about these is their marketing and packaging. They aren't better Ports. Most of them are, in fact, pretty average for what they are.

Do you really want to be paying that much of a "premium" for marketing and packaging?

[Doggett]

before this new trend for premium Single Harvests shifted the dial

That's just it - the only thing "premium" about these is their marketing and packaging. They aren't better Ports. Most of them are, in fact, pretty average for what they are.

Do you really want to be paying that much of a "premium" for marketing and packaging?

Fair point, well made. When saying ‘premium’ I suppose I am including the marketing and packaging too and not just the quality of the juice. Sometimes this is a welcome enhancement to the overall product and sometimes a waste. And you are right to point out the quality of Kopke and many other producers that as yet don’t have the name recognition (at least in the UK) to dictate the market the way the Symingtons and TFP can.

I also agree with you that a significant reason for these market changes are ‘Trophy hunters’, which may previously have been far fewer for Port than other wine categories, but something that seems to be on the increase across the board. Not great for the true lovers of drinking what is inside rather than just owning it, but it is a reality. I think most of us has a touch of the Trophy Hunter in us if we are honest, we just don’t like it if others don’t over pay, corner the market and limit our opportunities to try the wines.

[JacobH]

And you are right to point out the quality of Kopke and many other producers that as yet don’t have the name recognition (at least in the UK) to dictate the market the way the Symingtons and TFP can.

It’s more of a “no longer” with Kopke since they were one of the most prominent shippers in England in the 19th Century. I’m not actually sure how they slipped down the tables (as it were). Perhaps phylloxera hit them particularly badly?

What was the price for a Sandeman 40YO ten years ago compared to now?

The prices for the tawnies with an indication of age seem to be all over the place these days. Some seem to have leapt in price. For example I am struggling to find a bottle of the Niepoort 20 year old for less than £60. Average price seems to be about £65 to £70. That seems very high to me. The Ramos Pinto Quinta de Bom Retiro 20 year old is generally over £50 a bottle which again feels like a big leap upwards. On the other hand, the Noval 40-year-old is available from loads of places in the £90-£100 range which is what I think it has pretty much cost over the last 10 years.

[Alex Bridgeman]

I often seem to be the outlier in discussions of pricing - which I consider a totally separate topic from whether I would be a willing buyer.

As Simon says above, the right price for a bottle of wine is the price the market will pay. I believe the 1972 sold out at the “ridiculous” price being asked some months ago. It’s only retailers like Vintage Wine & Port who bought reasonable stocks who have any left.

If a product sells out at a high price, how can that price be too high? Every time a product sells out, why wouldn’t you push up the price of the replacement. What we’re seeing is Port moving up to a new norm.

The fact that you can get a Barros 1972 and a Burmester 1937 for the same price is probably a reflection of how well known the two houses are in their markets rather than a reflection of the quality of the wines. But gradually even the prices from the other houses will go up. Look at Royal Oporto’s recent 1927 Anniversary Release for over £1500. They’re only able to do that because of the precedent set by Niepoort, Taylor, Graham and so on. Mourão’s prices have gone through the roof; Sogevinus will probably follow.

I strongly suspect that we are seeing the end of the prices which used to enable us to drink well and drink (relatively) cheaply.

[MigSU]

I often seem to be the outlier in discussions of pricing - which I consider a totally separate topic from whether I would be a willing buyer.

This is very true. From time to time I try to remind myself that there is a distinction between "fair price for what the product is" and "how much I'd be willing to spend for that particular product".

The fact that you can get a Barros 1972 and a Burmester 1937 for the same price is probably a reflection of the market knowledge of the two houses rather than a reflection of the quality of the wines.

But with this I disagree. We all know that product quality is far from the only factor in deciding how much one is willing to pay for something.
How can 'the market' be unaware of possibly the best and most prestigious Port house for tawnies, particularly colheitas - Kopke - yet be willing to pay hundreds and hundreds of pounds for a tawny from a, until recently, relatively minor player in the tawny game - Graham's?

What Graham's did with their colheitas is what one would colloquially call "hype". Snazzy packaging and image, and a massive media and marketing strategy. And a quality wine, to be certain. But not one above its competitors. And I hate to be seemingly gatekeeping, here, but I have to agree with the above posters on prize hunters.

But I should stop writing, as this whole conversation has reminded me of another bone of contention I have: how the advent of premium VPs has, sneakily, decreased the quality of the 'regular' VPs without a corresponding lowering of price (the premium grapes that now go into premium VP used to go into the regular.....and now they don't). But that's another topic, which is why I should stop writing.

[Alex Bridgeman]

For various reasons I've been taking a look at the current prices for First Growth claret. The increase in price for those over the last 12 months has been eyewatering. For example, you could buy Chateau Mouton-Rothschild 1982 for £600 per bottle this time last year (in bond). If you want to buy the same bottle today it will set you back £880 (also in bond).

Perhaps the inflation in our world is not so bad after all!

[winesecretary]

Is it that Kopke 1937 is an ordinary good and that Graham 1974 is a veblen good? Is that what is causing our (largely shared) slight unease?

[MigSU]

Quite possibly.

[JacobH]

For various reasons I've been taking a look at the current prices for First Growth claret. The increase in price for those over the last 12 months has been eyewatering. For example, you could buy Chateau Mouton-Rothschild 1982 for £600 per bottle this time last year (in bond). If you want to buy the same bottle today it will set you back £880 (also in bond).

Perhaps the inflation in our world is not so bad after all!

This has encouraged me to open George Saintsbury’s 1920 “Notes on a Cellar-Book” again. Not only was he drinking as much first-growth claret, some quite old, as Port but he also comments:

One thing may be noticed before turning away from a wine on which I could write a dozen or a score of these chapters, and that is the extraordinary drop in prices which this book of mine shows [... B]efore I left Edinburgh, the headquarters at one time of claret-drinkers, it was practically useless to open a magnum of claret for a dinner party of twelve or fourteen people, unless you selected your guests on purpose. And as for the price, taking the same growths at the same age [...] I should say that there was a drop of at least twenty-five per cent. between [the 1870s and 1893s] and a further drop of more than the same extent between [1893 and 1899 / 1900]. Even now, when all wine is at abnormal and preposterous prices, I see hardly anything, in the better classes of claret, quoted at figures parallel even to those which obtained thirty years ago.

[Glenn E.]

Is it that Kopke 1937 is an ordinary good and that Graham 1974 is a veblen good? Is that what is causing our (largely shared) slight unease?

I had never heard that term before, but having now googled it I would have to agree. What I've been calling a trophy Port is in fact a veblen good.

I also can't help but compare that concept to people like Paris Hilton and the Kardashians, who are famous for being famous. How that starts appears to be complicated and involve a lot of luck, but once it gets going it seems to be entirely a hype machine behind which there is no actual value.

That's what I fear when I talk about trophy Ports. Their value as a drink gets removed as they become more expensive simply because they're famous for being expensive. At some point the producers could literally put basic Tawny in the bottle and continue to sell it as a trophy Port and no one would notice because no one would actually be drinking those trophies anymore, anyway. It worked for Rudy, after all.

I think that's a bad thing.

[Alex Bridgeman]

That is an interesting point. Is a Port drunk less often, the more expensive it is? Have either of the magnums of 1863 Niepoort which Dirk sold for €100,000 been drunk?

[JacobH]

I find it entertaining that in one thread we are discussing whether Port is overpriced by references to a £455 bottle of 1972 Graham’s colheita whereas in another thread we are sharing offers for the 2013 Graham’s Crusted at £15 (price before tax: £9.52!). If nothing else it demonstrates the Port market is completely mad in the UK these days...

[rich_n]

Is it that Kopke 1937 is an ordinary good and that Graham 1974 is a veblen good? Is that what is causing our (largely shared) slight unease?

I would say the issue here is the concern that while a specific vintage or colheita from a specific producer will have minimal impact on our port purchasing and consumption, the risk is that all vintage port shifts into the "desirable because it's desirable" category and starts to become unaffordable to the mere mortal.

I have very little issue with Graham Single Harvest being priced beyond my means because I have plenty of other options in terms of quality colheitas from other producers, but if all vintage suddenly went that way then it would restrict my choices.

[MigSU]

Is it that Kopke 1937 is an ordinary good and that Graham 1974 is a veblen good? Is that what is causing our (largely shared) slight unease?

I would say the issue here is the concern that while a specific vintage or colheita from a specific producer will have minimal impact on our port purchasing and consumption, the risk is that all vintage port shifts into the "desirable because it's desirable" category and starts to become unaffordable to the mere mortal.

I have very little issue with Graham Single Harvest being priced beyond my means because I have plenty of other options in terms of quality colheitas from other producers, but if all vintage suddenly went that way then it would restrict my choices.

Quite right, this sums up my fears very well. A cascading effect would be very bad news for us regular folk.

[winesecretary]

If all vintage port shifts into the "desirable because it's desirable" category, and starts to become unaffordable to the mere mortal, then in the worst case scenario we will all be sitting on an asset we can sell to fund our retirements. But there would need to be a global perception shift, akin to that which has happened over the past decade with burgundy, to soak up the millions of bottles of reasonably priced VP that are sitting around waiting to be drunk. There are, to me, no signs of that happening.

[rich_n]

If all vintage port shifts into the "desirable because it's desirable" category, and starts to become unaffordable to the mere mortal, then in the worst case scenario we will all be sitting on an asset we can sell to fund our retirements. But there would need to be a global perception shift, akin to that which has happened over the past decade with burgundy, to soak up the millions of bottles of reasonably priced VP that are sitting around waiting to be drunk. There are, to me, no signs of that happening.

I agree, which is why I don't care too much while these are relatively isolated products that see super-premium pricing. Most of the port producing world seems unable to persuade the general drinking public to see port the way most of us do.

[Glenn E.]

If all vintage port shifts into the "desirable because it's desirable" category, and starts to become unaffordable to the mere mortal, then in the worst case scenario we will all be sitting on an asset we can sell to fund our retirements. But there would need to be a global perception shift, akin to that which has happened over the past decade with burgundy, to soak up the millions of bottles of reasonably priced VP that are sitting around waiting to be drunk. There are, to me, no signs of that happening.

I see it starting, though it is slow. The introduction of "super premium" Ports such as my preciouses Graham's The Stone Terraces is part of the process. Release price of Vintage Port has been creeping up steadily over the last 2 decades as well.

The process has to be slow in general because Vintage Port is such a long-lived product. But that isn't true for Tawny Port, referring to the speed of the process not the life of the product. There are defined, limited quantities of old Tawny Ports and the producers can easily hold back stock (and talk about future generations while doing so) to increase scarcity and therefore prices. Once the prices go up, trickle out a little bit more.

The trick while doing this is to somehow also increase demand, which is what all of these premium bottlings are designed to do. Get the name out, establish the prestige, and then get the Millennial and Zoomer influencers on board.