Thu 08 Jun - 67@50 2017

Organise events to meet up and drink Port.
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flash_uk
Taylor Quinta de Vargellas 1987
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Re: Thu 08 Jun - 67@50 2017

Post by flash_uk » 15:33 Fri 09 Jun 2017

flash_uk wrote:
14:41 Wed 07 Jun 2017
How about a little sweepstake tomorrow evening — how many seats will the Conservatives win? £5 to play, nearest takes the pot. Entries would need to be written down blind until all entrants had made their choice, then can be revealed.

Well, the results are in (with the exception of one constituency). The question posed was "What will the Conservative majority be, or if no majority, what seat deficit would they have to a majority?" The election result was:
election.jpg
election.jpg (38.96 KiB) Viewed 431 times


And our guesses were:
elec_vote_s.jpg
elec_vote_s.jpg (36.99 KiB) Viewed 431 times


The Conservatives needed to attain 326 seats to achieve a majority, and as they can now only attain 318 seats, or 319 if they retain Kensington, they have a deficit to a majority of 8 seats, or 7 seats if they retain Kensington.

As the returning officer for The Port Forum 2017 First General Election Sweepstake I hereby declare that Ian sweeps the lot, with his guess of -7.

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flash_uk
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Re: Thu 08 Jun - 67@50 2017

Post by flash_uk » 15:42 Fri 09 Jun 2017

A small aside, for anyone considering holding an election sweepstake in the future. Upon reflection, I have realised that the question I posed was potentially ambiguous. For those people who guessed positive numbers, were they guessing how many seats above the 325 seat threshold the Conservatives would win, or were they guessing what the Conservative majority would be?

I know the question asked "what would the majority be?" However, the way the question was posed, means that the mechanism for calculating your answer is different depending on whether you expected a majority or a deficit.
If you expected a majority, then every seat the Conservatives won, over and above 325, resulted in a majority of twice that number of seats. So if they won 330 seats, they had 5 seats more than 325, which is a majority of 10.
If you expected a deficit, then you simply had to state how many seats short of 326 the Conservatives ended up.

A better formed, and unambiguous question would have been "How many additional or fewer seats will the Conservatives win, relative to 325 seat threshold?"

PhilW
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Re: Thu 08 Jun - 67@50 2017

Post by PhilW » 16:01 Fri 09 Jun 2017

flash_uk wrote:
15:42 Fri 09 Jun 2017
A small aside, for anyone considering holding an election sweepstake in the future. Upon reflection, I have realised that the question I posed was potentially ambiguous. For those people who guessed positive numbers, were they guessing how many seats above the 325 seat threshold the Conservatives would win, or were they guessing what the Conservative majority would be?

I know the question asked "what would the majority be?" <... snip ...>
which I think answers your question, though I understand the potential ambiguity and value of clarification! An argument could be made that anyone who guessed an odd number must have not understood the question, unless they were trying to be closer to a wider range of values :twisted:

Andy Velebil
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Re: Thu 08 Jun - 67@50 2017

Post by Andy Velebil » 00:03 Sat 10 Jun 2017

Simon terrible to hear. Hopefully the offenders are identified and caught.


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jdaw1
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Re: Thu 08 Jun - 67@50 2017

Post by jdaw1 » 11:04 Sat 10 Jun 2017

Doggett wrote:
18:02 Thu 08 Jun 2017
Returned this afternoon from 8 lovely days in Cornwall celebrating my sister's wedding, and beside myself with excitement for tonight's tasting... but unfortunately some unfriendly folk have smashed in the back doors of our house, been through every draw and cupboard, and as well as taking stuff left me with a very upset family. Suffice to say, I shan't make it this evening, but I very much hope that a great night is had by all. Obviously with all that's been going on, Rosie and I have only lost a few bits and pieces but we are all safe and okay... so in the current context, all is fine. Once again my best to all for a great tasting and I look forward to a glass another time instead.
You didn’t need that. Good luck with the mess, physical and emotional.


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