UK General Election in May 2015

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jdaw1
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UK General Election in May 2015

Post by jdaw1 »

The BBC, in an article entitled [url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32633099]Election exit poll puts Tories ahead[/url], wrote:UK election exit poll predicts Conservatives will be largest party in a hung parliament, with 316 seats to Labour's 239
Are you staying up all night? With what bottle for comfort or celebration?
Glenn E.
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Re: UK General Election in May 2015

Post by Glenn E. »

Could someone explain why 316 to 239 results in a hung parliament? Is ~57% of the vote insufficient in the UK?
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jdaw1
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Re: UK General Election in May 2015

Post by jdaw1 »

Because to get business done a government needs to command a majority in the House of Commons. For technical reasons — it’s complicated — that’s typically 323 seats. And 316 isn’t quite there. So the Conservatives will need friends in the House: and there are two obvious candidate parties.
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DRT
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Re: UK General Election in May 2015

Post by DRT »

jdaw1 wrote:Because to get business done a government needs to command a majority in the House of Commons. For technical reasons — it’s complicated — that’s typically 323 seats. And 316 isn’t quite there. So the Conservatives will need friends in the House: and there are two obvious candidate parties.
326, not 323.

The most important result that we all need to focus on is that I have the Conservatives for £50 at 11/2 with Paddy Power for an overall majority. Ten more votes than the exit poll suggests will buy me a case of Claret.
"The first duty of Port is to be red"
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DRT
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Re: UK General Election in May 2015

Post by DRT »

Back on topic - I am about to open a T85 to see me through to the early hours.
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DRT
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Re: UK General Election in May 2015

Post by DRT »

Glenn E. wrote:Could someone explain why 316 to 239 results in a hung parliament? Is ~57% of the vote insufficient in the UK?
Most of your mistake is in assuming we have a two party system - we don't. 316 seats is only 49% of the available seats, and normally much less than 49% of the popular vote.
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Re: UK General Election in May 2015

Post by PhilW »

Glenn E. wrote:Could someone explain why 316 to 239 results in a hung parliament? Is ~57% of the vote insufficient in the UK?
There are 650 seats; 316 & 239 are just the predictions for the two largest parties, and 316/650 is less than 50%.
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jdaw1
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Re: UK General Election in May 2015

Post by jdaw1 »

A Northern Irish party (the political wing of a terrorist organisation funded until September 2001 by New York, Boston and Chicago) typically gets four seats, and refuses to take them. Further, the speaker is traditionally neutral. So though theoretically there are 650 seats, in practice there are 645. Hence 323 is a majority.
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Re: UK General Election in May 2015

Post by DRT »

jdaw1 wrote:A Northern Irish party (the political wing of a terrorist organisation funded until September 2001 by New York, Boston and Chicago) typically gets four seats, and refuses to take them. Further, the speaker is traditionally neutral. So though theoretically there are 650 seats, in practice there are 645. Hence 323 is a majority.
Fair.
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jdaw1
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Re: UK General Election in May 2015

Post by jdaw1 »

And it’s good night from me. Presumably the result will be known at about breakfast time, though I’m not saying on which day.
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Re: UK General Election in May 2015

Post by DRT »

jdaw1 wrote:And it’s good night from me. Presumably the result will be known at about breakfast time, though I’m not saying on which day.
Good night. I am keeping with tradition and will stay up all night to watch the results coming in and then fall asleep an hour before the the outcome is announced.

T85 is very good, even though not given the time in the decanter that it deserved.
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Re: UK General Election in May 2015

Post by PhilW »

Still here also, though no bottle.
Would like to see exit poll prediction vs actual result when known on per-constituency basis, to evaluate poll accuracy; they only seem to be showing the result (and variation from 2010) once known, and prediction for a few as exemplars. Can't see per-constituency exit poll data anywhere on line - anyone?
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Re: UK General Election in May 2015

Post by Glenn E. »

DRT wrote:
Glenn E. wrote:Could someone explain why 316 to 239 results in a hung parliament? Is ~57% of the vote insufficient in the UK?
Most of your mistake is in assuming we have a two party system - we don't. 316 seats is only 49% of the available seats, and normally much less than 49% of the popular vote.
Aha, yes that would be the mistake. Completely forgot about that. Carry on!
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Re: UK General Election in May 2015

Post by PhilW »

That swingometer graphic just swung by way more than 0.2% !!
"Here's the swing..." It should barely have moved!
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Re: UK General Election in May 2015

Post by PhilW »

And it seems a 1.5% change is moving the needle by about 20 degrees...
I'm going to get some sleep while a few more results come in, and hope that the mathematical accuracy of the graphics improves in the meantime! (No breath-holding)
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Re: UK General Election in May 2015

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DRT wrote:I have the Conservatives for £50 at 11/2 with Paddy Power for an overall majority. Ten more votes than the exit poll suggests will buy me a case of Claret.
Majority now declared - Claret for DRT 88)
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jdaw1
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Re: UK General Election in May 2015

Post by jdaw1 »

DRT wrote:Claret for DRT 88)
It used to be said that Tories drank Claret and Whigs drank Port.
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Re: UK General Election in May 2015

Post by DRT »

jdaw1 wrote:
DRT wrote:Claret for DRT 88)
It used to be said that Tories drank Claret and Whigs drank Port.
Does the fact that I drink both make me a Liberal?
"The first duty of Port is to be red"
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Re: UK General Election in May 2015

Post by PhilW »

DRT wrote:
jdaw1 wrote:
DRT wrote:Claret for DRT 88)
It used to be said that Tories drank Claret and Whigs drank Port.
Does the fact that I drink both make me a Liberal?
I thought the Whigs were what became Liberals? It looks like we might need some new opposition now though - perhaps it's time for Derek the Whig to take a stand?
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jdaw1
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Re: UK General Election in May 2015

Post by jdaw1 »

PhilW wrote:Derek the Whig
He’s a Tory — he drinks Claret.
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Re: UK General Election in May 2015

Post by Justin K »

Julian,

Unfortunately Sinn Féin/I.R.A. is still funded in those cities. My brother lives in N.J. And he has been asked to attend numerous fundraisers just because he's Irish. He tells them where they can stick it! I'm a Labour supporter what am I supposed to drink? No rude answers please!
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UK General Election in May 2015

Post by djewesbury »

Good day all. I drank Gould Campbell 83 and Churchill Agua Alta 87. The latter was better. It had a pleasant green note that I found very satisfying at the finish.
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PhilW
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Re: UK General Election in May 2015

Post by PhilW »

jdaw1 wrote:
PhilW wrote:Derek the Whig
He’s a Tory — he drinks Claret.
A pity; I had a new Viz character in mind - Derek the Wig - "What are you looking at you bald ponce, pass me the port and a half of head'n'shoulders"
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