The 2014 Football World Cup

[LGTrotter]

In the spirit of togetherness that defines the World Cup I will make this promise. If all of the above bets are won I will supply a 6-pack of Taylor 1985 for the next "Let's drink a case of Port" experiment. But there is one condition: LGTrotter must attend as my guest of honour.

Awww! Derek! I've only just noticed this. In the spirit of the triumph of hope over experience I shall do all in my feeble power to attend should this come off.

For the first time I have some genuine interest in footie. You beauty.

[DRT]

I have checked the maths and am convinced that my bets are sure to come off. Owen, book your train tickets to London now. They will be much more expensive by the time PaddyPower pay me my money.

[LGTrotter]

A five horse accumulator? How about if you settle for just four bets coming off? Or are you determined to keep your Taylor 85 safe from predation and me from being pelted with food?

[djewesbury]

Personally I think England going out on penalties is too funny a prospect to come true.

[DRT]

A five horse accumulator? How about if you settle for just four bets coming off? Or are you determined to keep your Taylor 85 safe from predation and me from being pelted with food?

It's not an accumulator, they are each separate bets.

The offer was made for five. If only four come in something else might be done, but it would depend on which four they were. Not all of the bets have similar returns.

[DRT]

The dream lasted only 11 minutes before Brazil scored their first goal of the tournament, in their own net.

Fear not, gents, the 0-0 draw was by far the smallest potential return of the five bets. The T85 is still safe.

[AW77]

Just watching the Brazil game: Luiz Gustavo looks like a young Sammy Davis, Jr. to me. Or is this too far-fetched?

[jdaw1]

Brazil	Croatia
3	1

The world awaits the verdict of the experts. What say we?

[LGTrotter]

The world awaits the verdict of the experts. What say we?

Balls! One step further away from a generous offer.

[DRT]

The world awaits the verdict of the experts. What say we?

Balls! One step further away from a generous offer.

More to say than that.

Firstly, the dullness of the game was predictable. The first game of major footy tournaments are very often dull, which is why I went for the 0-0 draw bet.

Secondly, the referee was intimidated by the occasion. Another predictable event.

It was never a penalty, and it turned the game in favour of the hosts.

Overall a dull affair where the best team won a little unfairly.

The bullet holes in the studio window behind Adrian Chils was the most exciting part of the event.

[idj123]

Neither team looked any great shakes and without the ref's intervention the game would almost certainly have ended 1-1. Both will qualify for the knock-out stages but Brazil seem too dependent on Neymar to go all the way in what to me feels like it's going to be a very open tournament.

[LGTrotter]

Listening to Tim Harford on more or less today (radio 4) he came up with the perfect example of the 'birthday paradox'. This is that in a group of 23 people you have a slightly more than even chance of 2 people in that group sharing a birthday. World cup squads have 23 people in them and there are 32 of them in the competition.

So how many squads have a players sharing a birthday?

16. Don't you just love maths!

[DRT]

Listening to Tim Harford on more or less today (radio 4) he came up with the perfect example of the 'birthday paradox'. This is that in a group of 23 people you have a slightly more than even chance of 2 people in that group sharing a birthday. World cup squads have 23 people in them and there are 32 of them in the competition.

So how many squads have a players sharing a birthday?

16. Don't you just love maths!

Is that the actual number or the number of teams that are likely to have players sharing a birthday?

I work with actuaries so I know that question is important.

[LGTrotter]

Actual number of teams with players who share a birthday.

Some teams have more than 2 players sharing a birthday. Radio 4 would not lie to me, you can take this one to the bank.

[DRT]

Your faith in the BBC is, erm, admirable.

[LGTrotter]

Your faith in the BBC is, erm, admirable.

But this is radio 4 and more to the matter Tim Harford. Of the FT.

[DRT]

Your faith in the BBC is, erm, admirable.

But this is radio 4 and more to the matter Tim Harford. Of the FT.

I'm still not convinced.

Do you know what the chances are of a statistically likely outcome actually being the real outcome?

[DRT]

Spain are now 4-1 down to the Netherlands. My 13/2 bet on them winning the trophy is perhaps under threat.

The T85 might be safe after all.

[jdaw1]

Blimey. Given Derek's record I think we should all go and put on exactly the same bets. Now.

Spain have conceded five goals in an international for the first time since losing 6-2 to Scotland in June 1963.

[jdaw1]

Mexico	Cameroon
1	0

The world awaits the verdict of the experts. What say we?

[jdaw1]

Netherlands	Spain
5	1

The world awaits the verdict of the experts. What say we?

[LGTrotter]

Do you know what the chances are of a statistically likely outcome actually being the real outcome?

I assume this is a rhetorical device but I feel obliged to say no.

No.

[DRT]

The world awaits the verdict of the experts. What say we?

Mexico have the dubious honour of having lost more World Cup games than any other team. That might sound negative, but it is actually a function of their consistency in qualification for the finals. They will be no threat.

The Netherlands were outstanding. If there is a Fonseca 1970 display of the World Cup that was it.

Spain will still win the cup.

DRT has hedged by taking Netherlands at 16/1, thereby potentially saving the T85 tasting.

[DRT]

Do you know what the chances are of a statistically likely outcome actually being the real outcome?

I assume this is a rhetorical device but I feel obliged to say no.

No.

2/1.

[jdaw1]

DRT has hedged by taking Netherlands at 16/1, thereby potentially saving the T85 tasting.

Is there a misère prize: what do we drink if you lose every bet?