Port Prices of Vintages on Release?

mosesbotbol · Post by **mosesbotbol** » 13:00 Mon 23 Jul 2007

Is there a historical chart for how much previous vintages went for on average when they first came to market? For example, how much was a '70 Dow in '73 or the '55 Graham's in '58?

Post by **DRT** » 20:13 Mon 23 Jul 2007

Moses,

I have at least 2 books at home that list release prices. I will look these up later and post back here.

Derek

Post by **DRT** » 23:43 Tue 24 Jul 2007

Moses,

Sorry, I'm away from home right now and don't have my books so can't respond yet. But I know that ADV has the same book that I do so perhaps he could post the values for the wines you mentioned?

Derek

Andy Velebil · Post by **Andy Velebil** » 02:35 Wed 25 Jul 2007

Let me look...(all prices are in pounds)

1970 Dow's 2.30

1955 Graham's .95

Sucklings book "Vintage Port" was my source and lists many of the wines original release price.

If you want to know anymore, just let me know and I'll look them up.

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 08:09 Wed 25 Jul 2007

Just looked up the inflation figures...

From 1957, when the 55's were released, to 2005 when the 03's were released, multiply by 16.15 -

So nineteen shillings (£0.95) becomes £15.34

From 1972 to 2005, multiply by 8.84

So £2.30 becomes £20.32

The market was in the doldrums in '55, so low prices were to be expected, but the 1970 price shows clearly how prices have overshot now.

My own view is that the '03 vintage was overpriced by about 40%

Tom

Andy Velebil · Post by **Andy Velebil** » 08:26 Wed 25 Jul 2007

It will be interesting to see where Port prices go. I was talking to the owner of one of the biggest wine stores in California and he said he has been sitting on tons of Port becuase the prices have gone up to fast, just like the French wines. He also said he didn't see the Port market in the US getting any better in the near future. Mostly due to the rise in dry wine prices cutting into to an already limited Port market and the economy here not doing that great (mostly due to the super high housing market here). People just don't have the left over cash to buy a few Ports.

That may be good news for us in terms of better deals. Time will tell.

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 10:54 Wed 25 Jul 2007

While young vintage port looks badly overpriced, some older wines look surprisingly cheap.

Of course this depends on your take on value appreciation over time.

Storage is not free, nor is capital tie-up.

How much you assign to these factors is a bit subjective. However, if you assume that the wine will be stored in bulk in a utilitarian cellar located where commercial land is cheap, that the money to buy the wine will be borrowed at a commercial rate, and that the stock will be insured - then the time it takes for your mainstream vintage port to double in value (in real terms) comes out at around 17 years - but less for cheaper wines where the cost of storage weighs more heavily.

So one might expect a Dow '70 to be trading at around four times the inflation adjusted release price, or about £81 - yet at auction, it barely realises half that.

The Graham '55 on the other hand, is fully up to speed on that calculation.

One hazard with the old release prices is that some may be taken from trade price lists, while others may be retail prices. There is, of course, a big difference, and auction prices should always be regarded as 'Trade'

Tom

Post by **DRT** » 01:25 Tue 31 Jul 2007

Tom,

If you can be bothered, and you think it's statistically relevant, could you please work out and publish the release price of generally decalred VP's from one or two top producers at today's values over the past 100 years or so?

It would be interesteing to see just how much the market has changed and whether or not there were any humps in the upward curve of overpricing.

Derek

Andy Velebil · Post by **Andy Velebil** » 02:20 Tue 31 Jul 2007

I just found some 1985's on sale for $60. A steal, especially when the 2003's are more than this. Ahh, love those old, under the radar, VP's. I hope more people stop buying Port....only so I can take advantage of sale prices

(ok, so I was just being selfish there

)

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 08:08 Tue 31 Jul 2007

If you can be bothered, and you think it's statistically relevant, could you please work out and publish the release price of generally decalred VP's from one or two top producers at today's values over the past 100 years or so?

That's easy enough to do, I note that Suckling has release prices up to '85 - does anyone have data for the more recent vintages?

Tom

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 11:22 Tue 31 Jul 2007

To check the basis of Sucking's prices - does anyone have any old merchant lists from the 80's or earlier?

According to Suckling, the release price of the big name '85's was about £13/bottle - but did that include duty and VAT?

I think it probably did, but he doesn't say...

Adding inflation suggests a tax paid release price for the '03's of £24.70 - or about ten pounds a bottle less than what people had to pay - an overprice of 40%.

Tom

mosesbotbol · Post by **mosesbotbol** » 12:44 Tue 31 Jul 2007

If 2000+ port costs around $60.00 right now, it's hard to imagine that 25 years from now it will be worth $300-400...

Post by **DRT** » 02:50 Fri 03 Aug 2007

Tom,

Thanks. That's about the result I expected. I really do think the trade is either missing a trick here or is going all sentimental and trying to disuade people from drinking young VP. I think the former argument is more likely.

I think the IVDP should introduce a new rule that prevents most of the young VP from being shipped out of VNG until it is ready to drink, in the same way as many shippers control the release of their SQVP's.

We should be allowed to buy cases of declared vintage VP at reasonable prices with the bottles being retained by the shipper for 10 or 20 years prior to being shipped. Those who want to "see how it's doing" should pay the premium price for early release and their own impatience.

Derek

Post by **DRT** » 01:29 Sun 05 Aug 2007

uncle tom wrote:According to Suckling, the release price of the big name '85's was about £13/bottle - but did that include duty and VAT?

I think it probably did, but he doesn't say...

Yes he does - on page 137 he says "all United Kingdon prices include a 15% vat, and auction prices incorporate the 10% buyer's premium"

Derek

Post by **DRT** » 02:06 Sun 05 Aug 2007

Just for fun, here are the UK release prices for some of the wines scoring 98 points or higher on Suckling's list ...

Sandeman 1870 - £0.09
Royal Oporto 1871 - £0.15
Fonseca 1927 - £0.20
Quinta do Noval 1931 - £0.30
Quinta do Noval 1934 - £0.30
Croft 1945 - £0.40
Taylor's 1948 - £0.50
Fonseca 1948 - £0.48
Niepoort 1955 - £1.00
Fonseca 1963 - £1.15
Taylor's 1970 - £2.50
Taylor's 1977 - £7.00

Derek

Conky · Post by **Conky** » 02:09 Sun 05 Aug 2007

Bloody Hell! They weren't cheap when you consider average wages of those times
No wonder my old fella only bought it at Christmas...

Post by **DRT** » 02:18 Sun 05 Aug 2007

You're not wrong, Alan. I think [from old family stories] my parents were paying £7 per Quarter for their mortgage in 1965. About the same price as 6 bottles of VP

Derek

Post by **DRT** » 02:23 Sun 05 Aug 2007

Again, just for fun - taking the release price of F1927 against the only listed retail price on wine-searcher today as a benchmark, a bottle of Fonseca 2003 will cost £125,970 in 2087

Derek

Conky · Post by **Conky** » 02:38 Sun 05 Aug 2007

loose change!

Post by **DRT** » 02:41 Sun 05 Aug 2007

My son will [hopefully] be 94 in 2087. Perhaps I should buy him a case of F03 now to make him a Multi-Millionaire

Derek

Conky · Post by **Conky** » 02:44 Sun 05 Aug 2007

Multi millionaires will only be able to afford Terrace Houses...its all relative!

Post by **DRT** » 02:51 Sun 05 Aug 2007

Not really, I just can't see a bottle of F03 costing more than £50k in 80 years time due to a number of socio-economic factors. I could explain, but it's probably best if you don't ask.

Derek

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 12:10 Sun 05 Aug 2007

Yes he does - on page 137 he says "all United Kingdon prices include a 15% vat, and auction prices incorporate the 10% buyer's premium

Thanks Derek.

Trying to balance release prices against earnings is a little tricky when you go back a long way - people spent more of their income on food and clothing, but far less on housing.

If you index the Taylor '70 price against the value of a house my father bought around the same time, you arrive at a figure of £125..

The ratio between retail prices and release prices was fairly steady through the 60's 70's and 80's, but there has since been a leap of 40%

Does anyone have any figures for the 91's, 94's, 97's & 00's?

Tom

Post by **Alex Bridgeman** » 16:28 Mon 06 Aug 2007

Tom,

Some release prices that I have quickly on hand - all are Berry Brothers en primeur and so are in bond, delivered UK prices.

Fonseca 1997 £29.50
Fonseca 2000 £37.50
Fonseca 2003 £31.25
Vesuvio 1992 £25.00
Vesuvio 1994 £24.66
Vesuvio 1995 £23.50
Vesuvio 1996 £24.50
Vesuvio 1997 £29.50
Vesuvio 1998 £25.75
Vesuvio 1999 £24.95
Vesuvio 2000 £348 per dozen
Vesuvio 2001 £388.44 per dozen
Vesuvio 2003 £29.00
Vesuvio 2004 £280 per dozen
Taylor 1994 £24.66
Taylor 2000 £37.50
Vargellas Vinha Velha 2000 £132 (duty cleared)
VVV 2004 £80

Alex

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 17:23 Mon 06 Aug 2007

That's very interesting - from those figures it looks as though there was a huge price explosion twenty years ago, and that prices have actually settled back a little since the 2000 was released.

The prices for Vesuvio are painful compared to current auction prices - when you add in the duty, the '96 sells at auction for about half the price it was released at nine years ago..

Tom