Pointless Statistics

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AHB
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Re: Pointless Statistics

Post by AHB » 16:00 Wed 12 Jan 2011

AHB wrote:I've played around with my spreadsheet a little more and come up with some more statistics.

96% of my port is vintage or SQVP, 2% is crusted and 2% is unfiltered LBV. I have one bottle each of colheita, ruby and tawny.

96% of my port containers are 750ml bottles. All of the remaining 4% are half bottles. I own no magnums (and can't really see this changing considering the way in which I store and drink port).

And on the "thirty-years for drinking rule", only 35% of my port would be ready for drinking. At my normal rate of consumption, that will last me just under 3 years. Yikes! :shock: I need to go shopping after Christmas!
Oh how things change - how naive I was when I wrote this.

Today, 2 years later, things are different and I have benefited from having been shopping. I am now down to only 93% of my port being vintage or SQVP thanks to the ludicrously cheap offers of Croft LBV that Tesco have made at Christmas in each of the last two years. This has boosted my LBV stocks to account for 5% of my port, Crusted is 2% and I have 2 bottles of Tawny with an indication of age, 3 bottles of Tawny with no indication of age, one bottle of white port, two bottles of ruby port and three bottles of colheita. All together, there are 358 different ports represented in my cellar. 88% of the corks in my cellar are in bottles, 9% are in half bottles, 3% are in magnums and there are 3 screw-capped bottles. 40% of my port is aged 30 years or more and I nearly have enough to keep me going for the rest of my days provided I don't increase the rate at which I drink! I just need to buy a few bottles each new release in case I have American visitors drop by to see me.
Top Port in 2017 (so far): Graham Stone Terraces 2015 and Quinta do Vesuvio 1994
2016 Port of the year: Cockburn 1908

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AHB
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Re: Pointless Statistics

Post by AHB » 22:47 Tue 20 Dec 2011

Almost a year on from my last post, I've decided it's time to post some updated statistics - this time based on my tasting notes.

In 2005 I tasted 45 different ports
In 2006 I tasted 153 different ports
In 2007 I tasted 157 different ports
In 2008 I tasted 278 different ports
In 2009 I tasted 339 different ports
In 2010 I tasted 351 different ports
In 2011 I tasted 470 different ports

In 2006 the average age of port I tasted was 19 years old
In 2007 the average age of port I tasted was 39 years old
In 2008 the average age of port I tasted was 36 years old
In 2009 the average age of port I tasted was 29 years old
In 2010 the average age of port I tasted was 29 years old
In 2011 the average age of port I tasted was 30 years old

And the distribution of my scores in 2011 was:
100 - 0
99 - 2
98 - 3
97 - 1
96 - 3
95 - 7
94 - 16
93 - 26
92 - 36
91 - 34
90 - 40
89 - 47
88 - 42
87 - 36
86 - 37
85 - 28
84 - 20
83 - 15
82 - 12
81 - 4
80 - 8
79 - 3
78 - 4
77 - 1
76 - 1
75 - 0
74 - 2

Anybody interested in updated statistics from my cellar spreadsheet?
Top Port in 2017 (so far): Graham Stone Terraces 2015 and Quinta do Vesuvio 1994
2016 Port of the year: Cockburn 1908

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DRT
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Re: Pointless Statistics

Post by DRT » 22:51 Tue 20 Dec 2011

AHB wrote:Anybody interested in updated statistics from my cellar spreadsheet?
Yes please.
"The first duty of Port is to be red"

Ernest H. Cockburn

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AHB
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Re: Pointless Statistics

Post by AHB » 23:19 Wed 21 Dec 2011

So, some headline (and pointless) statistics from my cellar spreadsheet:

91% of my bottles (as in "glass container of any size used to contain wine of alcoholic content 3-20%") contain Port, 3% are claret, 2% are Champagne, 1% are Australian, 1% are English and the balance are from Spain, Hungary, South Africa, other parts of France, and other parts of the world. I have 4 bottles of Madeira.

Of the bottles with an indication of age, the average age of the wine in my cellar is 31 years and 114 days.

Of the Port, 89% are bottles, 8% are half bottles and 3% are magnums. There is nothing larger than a magnum.

There are 399 unique Ports in my cellar.

69% of my Port is vintage, 25% is single quinta vintage (which includes Vesuvio), 4% is LBV (mostly Croft 2004!) and 2% is Crusted.

My top 3 shippers are Vesuvio (16%), Fonseca (7%) and Graham (7%).

My top 3 vintages are 1963 (10%), 1994 (7%) and 1977 (6%).

And finally, using the 21 year rule for judging port to be ready for drinking, next year 59% of my port cellar will be ready :piginpoo:
Last edited by AHB on 12:09 Wed 28 Dec 2011, edited 1 time in total.
Top Port in 2017 (so far): Graham Stone Terraces 2015 and Quinta do Vesuvio 1994
2016 Port of the year: Cockburn 1908

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RAYC
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Re: Pointless Statistics

Post by RAYC » 14:38 Fri 23 Dec 2011

AHB wrote:Almost a year on from my last post, I've decided it's time to post some updated statistics - this time based on my tasting notes.

In 2005 I tasted 45 different ports
In 2006 I tasted 153 different ports
In 2007 I tasted 157 different ports
In 2008 I tasted 278 different ports
In 2009 I tasted 339 different ports
In 2010 I tasted 351 different ports
In 2011 I tasted 470 different ports
This is the most impressive statistic! 9 per week on average...up from below 1 per week in 2005...
Rob C.

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AHB
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Re: Pointless Statistics

Post by AHB » 12:06 Wed 28 Dec 2011

RAYC wrote:
AHB wrote:Almost a year on from my last post, I've decided it's time to post some updated statistics - this time based on my tasting notes.

In 2005 I tasted 45 different ports
In 2006 I tasted 153 different ports
In 2007 I tasted 157 different ports
In 2008 I tasted 278 different ports
In 2009 I tasted 339 different ports
In 2010 I tasted 351 different ports
In 2011 I tasted 470 different ports
This is the most impressive statistic! 9 per week on average...up from below 1 per week in 2005...
And now it's up to 473 - 3 more ports tasted so far this week.
Top Port in 2017 (so far): Graham Stone Terraces 2015 and Quinta do Vesuvio 1994
2016 Port of the year: Cockburn 1908

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Re: Pointless Statistics

Post by AHB » 11:19 Thu 15 Mar 2012

I was bored last night and added some functionality to my tasting notes statistics spreadsheet. I can now tell you that since I started keeping my notes electronically in 2005, I have tasted 1902 bottles of port (including last night's Churchill '82).

The most frequently tasted shippers come as no surprise, and are:
Taylor (inc. Vargellas and Terra Feita) 8%
Warre (inc. Cavadinha and LBV) 8%
Graham (inc. Malvedos) 8%
Fonseca (inc. Guimaraens) 7%
Noval (inc. Silva and Nacional) 6%
Dow (inc. Bomfim and Riberia) 6%
Croft (inc. Roeda and LBV) 5%
Vesuvio (inc. Capela) 5%

These 8 producers account for over half of all the port that I drink! It is also a pretty representative list of the ports that I will seek out and buy when I'm looking to add to my cellar. I like mature Cockburn and Sandeman vintage ports, but these are not that easy to find in the UK at the moment.
Top Port in 2017 (so far): Graham Stone Terraces 2015 and Quinta do Vesuvio 1994
2016 Port of the year: Cockburn 1908

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benread
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Re: Pointless Statistics

Post by benread » 20:34 Thu 15 Mar 2012

AHB wrote: Vesuvio (inc. Capela) 5%
Given your well known preference for mature vintage port, and the relative youth of vesuvio (unless you have a large stash of the 1890'something bottles) I was surprised it was as high as 5% yet.
Ben
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Vintage 1970!

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AHB
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Re: Pointless Statistics

Post by AHB » 20:45 Thu 15 Mar 2012

benread wrote:
AHB wrote: Vesuvio (inc. Capela) 5%
Given your well known preference for mature vintage port, and the relative youth of vesuvio (unless you have a large stash of the 1890'something bottles) I was surprised it was as high as 5% yet.
I was a little surprised, as well. I think it must have come from having taken part in a couple of complete verticals and lots of sample bottles. Plus I tend to have a bottle or two of the latest vintage over Christmas.
Top Port in 2017 (so far): Graham Stone Terraces 2015 and Quinta do Vesuvio 1994
2016 Port of the year: Cockburn 1908

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Re: Pointless Statistics

Post by uncle tom » 18:32 Fri 16 Mar 2012

Average age of VP drunk casually at home:

2005 - 21.5yrs
2006 - 27.0yrs
2007 - 26.6yrs
2008 - 30.8yrs
2009 - 33.9yrs
2010 - 34.4yrs
2011 - 36.1yrs

So far this year, the average age of bottles either drunk or on death row is 42.5yrs
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I shall be sober and you will still be ugly - W.S. Churchill

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JacobH
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Re: Pointless Statistics

Post by JacobH » 12:55 Sat 17 Mar 2012

AHB wrote: The most frequently tasted shippers come as no surprise, and are:
Taylor (inc. Vargellas and Terra Feita) 8%
Warre (inc. Cavadinha and LBV) 8%
Graham (inc. Malvedos) 8%
Fonseca (inc. Guimaraens) 7%
Curious that your list ended up almost the same as mine (currently, Taylor, Graham and Fonseca; not sure where Warre fits in). Is this a symptom of UK supermarket discounting policies?
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Re: Pointless Statistics

Post by AHB » 14:58 Mon 19 Mar 2012

uncle tom wrote:Average age of VP drunk casually at home:

2005 - 21.5yrs
2006 - 27.0yrs
2007 - 26.6yrs
2008 - 30.8yrs
2009 - 33.9yrs
2010 - 34.4yrs
2011 - 36.1yrs

So far this year, the average age of bottles either drunk or on death row is 42.5yrs
Tom's post made me think about the average age of the port I take out of my storage each year. In theory, this should be pretty constant as since 2009 I have had a specific distribution that I aim for and try to manage my consumption to fit that distribution - but I have never checked! So here goes:
2006 - 23.53
2007 - 26.54
2008 - 35.15
2009 - 38.48
2010 - 40.13
2011 - 43.17
2012 to date - 28.14 (expected for the year 39.81)

The target average age for the bottles I pull out in any one year does vary slightly because 10% of my consumption is from my year of birth, so each year I would expect the average age to increase slightly by about 0.1 year. The fact that I'm seeing more volatility than this worries me slightly - especially where the average is higher than expected as this indicates I'm drinking more older wines than will be replaced through the maturing of the other bottles.

I need to think this through a bit more! :?
Top Port in 2017 (so far): Graham Stone Terraces 2015 and Quinta do Vesuvio 1994
2016 Port of the year: Cockburn 1908

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Re: Pointless Statistics

Post by AHB » 17:58 Fri 20 Apr 2012

I had a few minutes spare this evening between finishing work and meeting my better half - what better way to spend the time than looking at my cellar records?

This time, I decided to look at a different set of statistics. How long have I kept bottles of Port in my cellar?

This is what I found:
11% has been owned by less than 1 year
22% has been owned between 1 and 2 years
29% has been owned between 2 and 3 years
16% has been owned between 3 and 4 years
4% has been owned for between 4 and 5 years
10% has been owned for between 5 and 7½ years
2% has been owned for between 7½ and 10 years
6% has been owned for more than 10 years

No other comment to be made apart from the fact that it's time for me to go and meet my better half. Have a good weekend all.
Last edited by AHB on 14:44 Fri 04 Jan 2013, edited 1 time in total.
Top Port in 2017 (so far): Graham Stone Terraces 2015 and Quinta do Vesuvio 1994
2016 Port of the year: Cockburn 1908

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DRT
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Re: Pointless Statistics

Post by DRT » 07:44 Sun 22 Apr 2012

AHB wrote:11% has been owned by less than 1 year
22% has been owned between 1 and 2 years
29% has been owned between 2 and 3 years
16% has been owned between 3 and 4 years
4% has been owned for between 4 and 5 years
10% has been owned for between 5 and 7½ years
2% has been owned for between 7½ and 10 years
6% has been owned for more than 10 years
So!

92% has been purchased since the first tasting at the Crusting Pipe?

{slippery-slope-smilie}
"The first duty of Port is to be red"

Ernest H. Cockburn

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Re: Pointless Statistics

Post by AHB » 17:34 Sun 22 Apr 2012

DRT wrote:
AHB wrote:11% has been owned by less than 1 year
22% has been owned between 1 and 2 years
29% has been owned between 2 and 3 years
16% has been owned between 3 and 4 years
4% has been owned for between 4 and 5 years
10% has been owned for between 5 and 7½ years
2% has been owned for between 7½ and 10 years
6% has been owned for more than 10 years
So!

92% has been purchased since the first tasting at the Crusting Pipe?

{slippery-slope-smilie}
Very true. Much of what I had before the first tasting at TCP has since been consumed. And then Tom persuaded me to model my consumption vs cellar age for the next 30 years and the ground slid out from under me.

However, many fewer bottles are being purchased this year compared to the last few years. I am in control. I can decline to buy bargain bottles of port. I can do it, I know I can.
Top Port in 2017 (so far): Graham Stone Terraces 2015 and Quinta do Vesuvio 1994
2016 Port of the year: Cockburn 1908

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Re: Pointless Statistics

Post by DRT » 17:39 Sun 22 Apr 2012

AHB wrote:However, many fewer bottles are being purchased this year compared to the last few years. I am in control. I can decline to buy bargain bottles of port. I can do it, I know I can.
Your self-restraint is admirable. But it is a great shame that you must have completely missed out on the recent offers of Dow Bomfim 1992, Quevedo 2007, Croft LBV 2004, Dow's Crusted 2004 and various other LBV bargains :roll:
"The first duty of Port is to be red"

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Re: Pointless Statistics

Post by AHB » 20:02 Sun 22 Apr 2012

DRT wrote:
AHB wrote:However, many fewer bottles are being purchased this year compared to the last few years. I am in control. I can decline to buy bargain bottles of port. I can do it, I know I can.
Your self-restraint is admirable. But it is a great shame that you must have completely missed out on the recent offers of Dow Bomfim 1992, Quevedo 2007, Croft LBV 2004, Dow's Crusted 2004 and various other LBV bargains :roll:
Recently, I have bought no Quevedo 2007, no Croft 2004 LBV and no Dow Crusted. I may buy a bottle or two of LBV in the future but no-one can tell what the future brings.

But I did succumb to the temptation of a case of Bomfim '92. I decided to make an exception for a port that was almost ready for drinking.
Top Port in 2017 (so far): Graham Stone Terraces 2015 and Quinta do Vesuvio 1994
2016 Port of the year: Cockburn 1908

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Re: Pointless Statistics

Post by DRT » 23:08 Sun 22 Apr 2012

AHB wrote:
DRT wrote:Your self-restraint is admirable.
Recently, I have bought no Quevedo 2007, no Croft 2004 LBV and no Dow Crusted
We are not disagreeing.
"The first duty of Port is to be red"

Ernest H. Cockburn

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Re: Pointless Statistics

Post by AHB » 12:51 Wed 12 Sep 2012

Typing up some tasting notes, I discovered another area of my spreadsheet which analyses the vintage of the ports I have tasted. My top 5 vintages since 2005 turn out to be:

1970 - 8.7%
1963 - 5.9%
1977 - 5.4%
2007 - 4.8%
1985 - 4.7%

I can only imagine that 2007 is in there from all the sample tasting that I did a couple of years ago.
Top Port in 2017 (so far): Graham Stone Terraces 2015 and Quinta do Vesuvio 1994
2016 Port of the year: Cockburn 1908

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Re: Pointless Statistics

Post by AHB » 18:01 Tue 01 Jan 2013

The end of the year is the time when I post some of the statistics from my cellar spreadsheet so that I have a record for the future.

On 31 December 2012, my cellar comprised 91% Port, 3% Bordeaux, 2% Champagne, 1% Australian, 0.5% of each of Rhone, South Africa, Spain plus small numbers of bottles from England, Sauterne, Hungary, Portugal, Italy, Lebanon, Greece, Chile, US and other French regions.

Of the port, 61% is 21 years of age or older and therefore ready for drinking. 89% of the containers are bottles, 8% are half-bottles, 3% are magnums and I also own 3 double-magnums. 68% of the bottles are vintage port, 25% single quinta vintage port, 6% is LBV, 1% is crusted and there is 1 bottle of colheita, 1 bottle of ruby and 1 bottle of ruby reserve.

The top 5 shippers in my cellar are Vesuvio (15%), Fonseca (8%), Warre (8%), Graham (8%) and Smith Woodhouse (6%). The top 5 vintages are 1963 (10%), 1994 (7%), 1977 (6%), 1985 (6%), 1997 (6%). There are 409 different combinations of shipper and vintage in my cellar.

During 2012 I tasted 433 different bottles of port, which had an average age of 32 years, 101 days. 32 were from 1970, 28 from 1977, 25 from 1963, 21 from 1985 and from 1966. The most frequently tasted port in 2012 was Vesuvio 2010 (8 times).
Top Port in 2017 (so far): Graham Stone Terraces 2015 and Quinta do Vesuvio 1994
2016 Port of the year: Cockburn 1908

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RAYC
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Re: Pointless Statistics

Post by RAYC » 18:50 Tue 01 Jan 2013

Very interesting...
AHB wrote:68% of the bottles are vintage port, 25% single quinta vintage port
But how are you classifying this?
eg:
Vesuvio
Noval
Croft
pre-95 Malvedos
1963 Constantinho
Unknown shippers
Rob C.

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Re: Pointless Statistics

Post by AHB » 23:11 Tue 01 Jan 2013

RAYC wrote:Very interesting...
AHB wrote:68% of the bottles are vintage port, 25% single quinta vintage port
But how are you classifying this?
eg:
Vesuvio
Noval
Croft
pre-95 Malvedos
1963 Constantinho
Unknown shippers
I've tried to be consistent with previous years, although I accept that I have not been internally consistent. However, to answer your questions:
Vesuvio - single quinta
Noval - full vintage
Croft - full vintage
Pre-95 Malvedos - single quinta
(Fonseca-Guimaraens - single quinta)
1963 Constantino - full vintage
Unknown shippers - full vintage, because that's what they have all turned out to be once opened and identified

Any other questions?
Top Port in 2017 (so far): Graham Stone Terraces 2015 and Quinta do Vesuvio 1994
2016 Port of the year: Cockburn 1908

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Re: Pointless Statistics

Post by RAYC » 04:04 Wed 02 Jan 2013

AHB wrote: Any other questions?
Is this a challenge to see what your spreadsheet is capable of...?!

If so:

- what percentage of your cellar is SFE and what percentage is TFP?

- are there any vintages or producers represented in your cellar by only 1 bottle? (for the purpose of this calculation, ignoring the possibility that unknowns could turn out to be further bottles from any such vintage or producer)

- for ports of vintage 1970 and earlier, what are the respective proportions of English bottled, Oporto bottled and "Unknown" bottled ports?

- what are the respective proportions of bottles purchased: a) on release b) ex-cellars (but not on release) and c) on the secondary market

- in terms of determining the average age of port drunk to the nearest day, how are you measuring this (e.g.: by assuming [X] September to be a representative average across all producers for when port is "born" each year by fortification of the must to arrest fermentation)?
Rob C.

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Re: Pointless Statistics

Post by AHB » 15:37 Wed 02 Jan 2013

RAYC wrote:
AHB wrote: Any other questions?
Is this a challenge to see what your spreadsheet is capable of...?!
It wasn't intended to be, more of an invitation that if there were other things you wanted to know then you were welcome to ask.
RAYC wrote:If so:

- what percentage of your cellar is SFE and what percentage is TFP?
56% is from the current portfolio of SFE shippers, and 25% from the current portfolio of TFP shippers.
RAYC wrote:- are there any vintages or producers represented in your cellar by only 1 bottle? (for the purpose of this calculation, ignoring the possibility that unknowns could turn out to be further bottles from any such vintage or producer)
Yes, lots. There are 17 vintages where I have just one bottle of port from the vintage, and 16 shippers who are represented by just one bottle (treating sub-labels as seperate shippers - eg. Kopke and Kopke Sao Luiz are different). There are two bottles where the bottle is the sole representative of both shipper and vintage.
RAYC wrote:- for ports of vintage 1970 and earlier, what are the respective proportions of English bottled, Oporto bottled and "Unknown" bottled ports?
This is something that I have not tracked. Where I know the bottler, I have a record but the record is part of the condition report of the bottle and not something that can be seperately analysed.
RAYC wrote:- what are the respective proportions of bottles purchased: a) on release b) ex-cellars (but not on release) and c) on the secondary market
Assuming that you are referring only to the port, 80% of my bottles have been bought on the secondary market with the remainder being fairly equally split between purchase on release and later purchase ex-cellars.
RAYC wrote:- in terms of determining the average age of port drunk to the nearest day, how are you measuring this (e.g.: by assuming [X] September to be a representative average across all producers for when port is "born" each year by fortification of the must to arrest fermentation)?
To keep things simple, all port becomes 1 year older on 1 January and remains the same age for the next 365 days. I make no effort to work out the average age of the contents of a bottle to the nearest day based on the day of consumption and an assumed day of harvest or fortification. If a bottle of 1963 port is opened in 2013 then that is 50 year old port, regardless of whether it is opened on 1 January or 31 December. The analysis of the average age of port is the sum of the "age" of all bottles (calculated in the way described above), divided by the number of bottles consumed and the fraction expressed in 365ths.
Top Port in 2017 (so far): Graham Stone Terraces 2015 and Quinta do Vesuvio 1994
2016 Port of the year: Cockburn 1908

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Re: Pointless Statistics

Post by PhilW » 12:00 Thu 03 Jan 2013

AHB wrote:The top 5 shippers in my cellar are Vesuvio (15%), Fonseca (8%), Warre (8%), Graham (8%) and Smith Woodhouse (6%). The top 5 vintages are 1963 (10%), 1994 (7%), 1977 (6%), 1985 (6%), 1997 (6%). There are 409 different combinations of shipper and vintage in my cellar.
I'd be curious to know your equivalent percentages for 21yr+ ('drinking ready'); I was surprised not to find Dow in the above (my percentages would start with Warre>Fonseca>Vesuvio>rest, but I expected Dow higher in yours).

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