Deep thought..
- uncle tom
- Dalva Golden White Colheita 1952
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Deep thought..
In a recent blog conversation, a collector of antique gold sovereigns made the argument that because there would always be a few coins lost each year, those that remained would gain value in real terms. I replied that in percentage terms, that would probably be well under 1% p.a. whereas if you invested in bottles of vintage port you could reckon on the mysterious disappearance of around 5% each year.
Now, that was slightly tongue in cheek, as I have always maintained that the one statistic we could never deduce was how much VP is actually drunk each year.
But could I make an informed guess? I set up a spreadsheet to test various percentage reductions. My first thought was that this would only generate a very rough indication, as there would surely be periods of more intense consumption. However, a gradual decrease year on year in percentage terms does not look too unlikely when you play with the numbers (although there is probably a negative deviation before the supermarket SQs are released, and a positive one as a consequence)
In Douglas Adams classic 'A Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy' a computer called Deep Thought took took 7.5 million years to find the Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything and concluded it was 42
After playing with my spreadsheet for around 7.5 minutes, I concluded that the most credible average annual consumption rate for vintage port (after bottling) was about 4.2% p.a.
This generates a half life of roughly 16 years, with just over one bottle in eight surviving to be 50, and just one bottle in 67 making it to 100..
Now, that was slightly tongue in cheek, as I have always maintained that the one statistic we could never deduce was how much VP is actually drunk each year.
But could I make an informed guess? I set up a spreadsheet to test various percentage reductions. My first thought was that this would only generate a very rough indication, as there would surely be periods of more intense consumption. However, a gradual decrease year on year in percentage terms does not look too unlikely when you play with the numbers (although there is probably a negative deviation before the supermarket SQs are released, and a positive one as a consequence)
In Douglas Adams classic 'A Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy' a computer called Deep Thought took took 7.5 million years to find the Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything and concluded it was 42
After playing with my spreadsheet for around 7.5 minutes, I concluded that the most credible average annual consumption rate for vintage port (after bottling) was about 4.2% p.a.
This generates a half life of roughly 16 years, with just over one bottle in eight surviving to be 50, and just one bottle in 67 making it to 100..
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I shall be sober and you will still be ugly - W.S. Churchill
- mannye
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Re: Deep thought..
Regardless of how accurate your calculations are, I think it’s a good bet that a well regarded current vintage, if cellared beginning on the day of a grandsons birth and bequeathed to said grandson on his 50th birthday would be a wonderful and potentially priceless gift.uncle tom wrote:In a recent blog conversation, a collector of antique gold sovereigns made the argument that because there would always be a few coins lost each year, those that remained would gain value in real terms. I replied that in percentage terms, that would probably be well under 1% p.a. whereas if you invested in bottles of vintage port you could reckon on the mysterious disappearance of around 5% each year.
Now, that was slightly tongue in cheek, as I have always maintained that the one statistic we could never deduce was how much VP is actually drunk each year.
But could I make an informed guess? I set up a spreadsheet to test various percentage reductions. My first thought was that this would only generate a very rough indication, as there would surely be periods of more intense consumption. However, a gradual decrease year on year in percentage terms does not look too unlikely when you play with the numbers (although there is probably a negative deviation before the supermarket SQs are released, and a positive one as a consequence)
In Douglas Adams classic 'A Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy' a computer called Deep Thought took took 7.5 million years to find the Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything and concluded it was 42
After playing with my spreadsheet for around 7.5 minutes, I concluded that the most credible average annual consumption rate for vintage port (after bottling) was about 4.2% p.a.
This generates a half life of roughly 16 years, with just over one bottle in eight surviving to be 50, and just one bottle in 67 making it to 100..
I asked a few white mice what they thought and believe they enthusiastically agreed with me.
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- Alex Bridgeman
- Graham’s 1948
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Re: Deep thought..
I can't remember how many bottles of Fonseca 1970 or 1985 were filled in 1972 or 1987, but I know it was a lot — let's say it was 10,000 12 bottle cases of each.
That means in 2020 we'd expect there still to be around 1,250 cases of each in 2020 / 2035. That seems reasonable. I have a case of F70 and don't have enough of it. I'm sure I know at least 1,249 other people who don't have enough F70.
That means in 2020 we'd expect there still to be around 1,250 cases of each in 2020 / 2035. That seems reasonable. I have a case of F70 and don't have enough of it. I'm sure I know at least 1,249 other people who don't have enough F70.
Top Ports in 2023: Taylor 1896 Colheita, b. 2021. A perfect Port.
2024: Niepoort 1900 Colheita, b.1971. A near perfect Port.
2024: Niepoort 1900 Colheita, b.1971. A near perfect Port.
- Axel P
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Re: Deep thought..
Interesting thoughts, Tom.
If you want to complicate your theory a bit, you might take into consideration that the first years/decades the Ports would be opened much more than in the later years. If your average is 4% and your average life expectancy is 80 years for a good year, you might want to take this into consideration as well, that the bottles are not consumed in a linear way, rather more in the first half and rather less in the second half. I would like to pass the ball to Julian to come up with a scheme on this.
Best
Axel
If you want to complicate your theory a bit, you might take into consideration that the first years/decades the Ports would be opened much more than in the later years. If your average is 4% and your average life expectancy is 80 years for a good year, you might want to take this into consideration as well, that the bottles are not consumed in a linear way, rather more in the first half and rather less in the second half. I would like to pass the ball to Julian to come up with a scheme on this.
Best
Axel
worldofport.com
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- Axel P
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- Dalva Golden White Colheita 1952
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Re: Deep thought..
Using Tom and Alex's estimates, if you owned all the remaining F70 in existence then in 2020 you would have 1275 cases, or 15300 bottles. At one bottle per day that would last 42 years, while at half a bottle per day it would last 84 years. This would equate to drinking roughly 100 units/week for 42 years, or 50 units/week for 84 years, both of which seem unlikely, suggesting that it would in fact be possible for a single individual to have enough F70, though perhaps not for two individuals to ever both have enough.
For a single individual to obtain a sufficient proportion of the remaining F70 to get anywhere near close to 50% of the existing bottles (below which the possibility of an individual consuming it starts to become possible for a young healthy individual), they would need to be sufficiently wealthy: 1274 cases at a minimum of ~£1000/case would be £1million+, likely much higher as that would be a very low case price with retail currently roughly double that, and the price would rise massively as case availability dropped; and/or a buyer of all remaining producer's stock (I wonder how much F70 remains in TFP cellars?).
Therefore, while technically possible for a single person, we can never have enough F70
- uncle tom
- Dalva Golden White Colheita 1952
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Re: Deep thought..
Although consumption in numerical terms will be far greater when the bottles are young, in percentage terms it looks more likely to be steady.If your average is 4% and your average life expectancy is 80 years for a good year, you might want to take this into consideration as well, that the bottles are not consumed in a linear way, rather more in the first half and rather less in the second half.
I'm not that far away..This would equate to drinking roughly 100 units/week for 42 years
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I shall be sober and you will still be ugly - W.S. Churchill
Re: Deep thought..
I have two cases of F70, and now feel rather smugAHB wrote: ↑14:19 Wed 21 Feb 2018 I can't remember how many bottles of Fonseca 1970 or 1985 were filled in 1972 or 1987, but I know it was a lot — let's say it was 10,000 12 bottle cases of each.
That means in 2020 we'd expect there still to be around 1,250 cases of each in 2020 / 2035. That seems reasonable. I have a case of F70 and don't have enough of it. I'm sure I know at least 1,249 other people who don't have enough F70.
"The first duty of Port is to be red"
Ernest H. Cockburn
Ernest H. Cockburn
- uncle tom
- Dalva Golden White Colheita 1952
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Re: Deep thought..
I've only got 12..I have two cases of F70, and now feel rather smug
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I shall be sober and you will still be ugly - W.S. Churchill
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Re: Deep thought..
Party at DRT's houseDRT wrote: ↑01:43 Fri 23 Feb 2018I have two cases of F70, and now feel rather smugAHB wrote: ↑14:19 Wed 21 Feb 2018 I can't remember how many bottles of Fonseca 1970 or 1985 were filled in 1972 or 1987, but I know it was a lot — let's say it was 10,000 12 bottle cases of each.
That means in 2020 we'd expect there still to be around 1,250 cases of each in 2020 / 2035. That seems reasonable. I have a case of F70 and don't have enough of it. I'm sure I know at least 1,249 other people who don't have enough F70.
Re: Deep thought..
How many bottles of 1920 do you think remain in the world? Out of, let's say, 10k dozen released.
A hundred? Implies 7.1% per year.
A thousand? Implies 4.9%.
Ten grand? 2.6%.
So 4ish percent per annum isn't obviously wrong.
A hundred? Implies 7.1% per year.
A thousand? Implies 4.9%.
Ten grand? 2.6%.
So 4ish percent per annum isn't obviously wrong.
- uncle tom
- Dalva Golden White Colheita 1952
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Re: Deep thought..
At 4.2% (starting at bottling date 1922) 10k dozen (120,000) now reduces to 1951 bottles - a credible number IMO..How many bottles of 1920 do you think remain in the world? Out of, let's say, 10k dozen released.
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I shall be sober and you will still be ugly - W.S. Churchill