Deep thought..

Anything to do with Port.
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uncle tom
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Deep thought..

Post by uncle tom » 11:27 Mon 19 Feb 2018

In a recent blog conversation, a collector of antique gold sovereigns made the argument that because there would always be a few coins lost each year, those that remained would gain value in real terms. I replied that in percentage terms, that would probably be well under 1% p.a. whereas if you invested in bottles of vintage port you could reckon on the mysterious disappearance of around 5% each year.

Now, that was slightly tongue in cheek, as I have always maintained that the one statistic we could never deduce was how much VP is actually drunk each year.

But could I make an informed guess? I set up a spreadsheet to test various percentage reductions. My first thought was that this would only generate a very rough indication, as there would surely be periods of more intense consumption. However, a gradual decrease year on year in percentage terms does not look too unlikely when you play with the numbers (although there is probably a negative deviation before the supermarket SQs are released, and a positive one as a consequence)

In Douglas Adams classic 'A Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy' a computer called Deep Thought took took 7.5 million years to find the Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything and concluded it was 42

After playing with my spreadsheet for around 7.5 minutes, I concluded that the most credible average annual consumption rate for vintage port (after bottling) was about 4.2% p.a.

This generates a half life of roughly 16 years, with just over one bottle in eight surviving to be 50, and just one bottle in 67 making it to 100..
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I shall be sober and you will still be ugly - W.S. Churchill

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mannye
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Re: Deep thought..

Post by mannye » 14:49 Mon 19 Feb 2018

uncle tom wrote:In a recent blog conversation, a collector of antique gold sovereigns made the argument that because there would always be a few coins lost each year, those that remained would gain value in real terms. I replied that in percentage terms, that would probably be well under 1% p.a. whereas if you invested in bottles of vintage port you could reckon on the mysterious disappearance of around 5% each year.

Now, that was slightly tongue in cheek, as I have always maintained that the one statistic we could never deduce was how much VP is actually drunk each year.

But could I make an informed guess? I set up a spreadsheet to test various percentage reductions. My first thought was that this would only generate a very rough indication, as there would surely be periods of more intense consumption. However, a gradual decrease year on year in percentage terms does not look too unlikely when you play with the numbers (although there is probably a negative deviation before the supermarket SQs are released, and a positive one as a consequence)

In Douglas Adams classic 'A Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy' a computer called Deep Thought took took 7.5 million years to find the Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything and concluded it was 42

After playing with my spreadsheet for around 7.5 minutes, I concluded that the most credible average annual consumption rate for vintage port (after bottling) was about 4.2% p.a.

This generates a half life of roughly 16 years, with just over one bottle in eight surviving to be 50, and just one bottle in 67 making it to 100..
Regardless of how accurate your calculations are, I think it’s a good bet that a well regarded current vintage, if cellared beginning on the day of a grandsons birth and bequeathed to said grandson on his 50th birthday would be a wonderful and potentially priceless gift.

I asked a few white mice what they thought and believe they enthusiastically agreed with me. :)


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AHB
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Re: Deep thought..

Post by AHB » 14:19 Wed 21 Feb 2018

I can't remember how many bottles of Fonseca 1970 or 1985 were filled in 1972 or 1987, but I know it was a lot — let's say it was 10,000 12 bottle cases of each.

That means in 2020 we'd expect there still to be around 1,250 cases of each in 2020 / 2035. That seems reasonable. I have a case of F70 and don't have enough of it. I'm sure I know at least 1,249 other people who don't have enough F70.
Top Ports in 2018 (so far): Niepoort VV (1960's Bottling), Quinta do Noval Nacional 1994 and San Leonardo Very Old White (Bottled 2018)
2017 Ports of the year: Fonseca 1927 and Quinta do Noval 1927

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Axel P
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Re: Deep thought..

Post by Axel P » 10:39 Thu 22 Feb 2018

Interesting thoughts, Tom.

If you want to complicate your theory a bit, you might take into consideration that the first years/decades the Ports would be opened much more than in the later years. If your average is 4% and your average life expectancy is 80 years for a good year, you might want to take this into consideration as well, that the bottles are not consumed in a linear way, rather more in the first half and rather less in the second half. I would like to pass the ball to Julian to come up with a scheme on this.

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Axel P
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Re: Deep thought..

Post by Axel P » 10:40 Thu 22 Feb 2018

AHB wrote:
14:19 Wed 21 Feb 2018
I have a case of F70 and don't have enough of it.
Can you ever have enough F70?
worldofport.com
o-port-unidade.com

PhilW
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Re: Deep thought..

Post by PhilW » 11:49 Thu 22 Feb 2018

Axel P wrote:
10:40 Thu 22 Feb 2018
AHB wrote:
14:19 Wed 21 Feb 2018
I have a case of F70 and don't have enough of it.
Can you ever have enough F70?
Using Tom and Alex's estimates, if you owned all the remaining F70 in existence then in 2020 you would have 1275 cases, or 15300 bottles. At one bottle per day that would last 42 years, while at half a bottle per day it would last 84 years. This would equate to drinking roughly 100 units/week for 42 years, or 50 units/week for 84 years, both of which seem unlikely, suggesting that it would in fact be possible for a single individual to have enough F70, though perhaps not for two individuals to ever both have enough.

For a single individual to obtain a sufficient proportion of the remaining F70 to get anywhere near close to 50% of the existing bottles (below which the possibility of an individual consuming it starts to become possible for a young healthy individual), they would need to be sufficiently wealthy: 1274 cases at a minimum of ~£1000/case would be £1million+, likely much higher as that would be a very low case price with retail currently roughly double that, and the price would rise massively as case availability dropped; and/or a buyer of all remaining producer's stock (I wonder how much F70 remains in TFP cellars?).

Therefore, while technically possible for a single person, we can never have enough F70 :CC0000:

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uncle tom
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Re: Deep thought..

Post by uncle tom » 14:40 Thu 22 Feb 2018

If your average is 4% and your average life expectancy is 80 years for a good year, you might want to take this into consideration as well, that the bottles are not consumed in a linear way, rather more in the first half and rather less in the second half.
Although consumption in numerical terms will be far greater when the bottles are young, in percentage terms it looks more likely to be steady.
This would equate to drinking roughly 100 units/week for 42 years
I'm not that far away.. :roll:
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I shall be sober and you will still be ugly - W.S. Churchill

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DRT
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Re: Deep thought..

Post by DRT » 01:43 Fri 23 Feb 2018

AHB wrote:
14:19 Wed 21 Feb 2018
I can't remember how many bottles of Fonseca 1970 or 1985 were filled in 1972 or 1987, but I know it was a lot — let's say it was 10,000 12 bottle cases of each.

That means in 2020 we'd expect there still to be around 1,250 cases of each in 2020 / 2035. That seems reasonable. I have a case of F70 and don't have enough of it. I'm sure I know at least 1,249 other people who don't have enough F70.
I have two cases of F70, and now feel rather smug :piginpoo:
"The first duty of Port is to be red"
Ernest H. Cockburn

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uncle tom
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Re: Deep thought..

Post by uncle tom » 08:18 Fri 23 Feb 2018

I have two cases of F70, and now feel rather smug
I've only got 12..
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I shall be sober and you will still be ugly - W.S. Churchill

PhilW
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Re: Deep thought..

Post by PhilW » 09:36 Fri 23 Feb 2018

uncle tom wrote:
08:18 Fri 23 Feb 2018
I have two cases of F70, and now feel rather smug
I've only got 12..
Does everyone remember when we said we ought to do another case tasting... :shock:

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Re: Deep thought..

Post by Andy Velebil » 16:50 Fri 23 Feb 2018

DRT wrote:
01:43 Fri 23 Feb 2018
AHB wrote:
14:19 Wed 21 Feb 2018
I can't remember how many bottles of Fonseca 1970 or 1985 were filled in 1972 or 1987, but I know it was a lot — let's say it was 10,000 12 bottle cases of each.

That means in 2020 we'd expect there still to be around 1,250 cases of each in 2020 / 2035. That seems reasonable. I have a case of F70 and don't have enough of it. I'm sure I know at least 1,249 other people who don't have enough F70.
I have two cases of F70, and now feel rather smug :piginpoo:
Party at DRT's house :P

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jdaw1
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Re: Deep thought..

Post by jdaw1 » 17:29 Fri 23 Feb 2018

How many bottles of 1920 do you think remain in the world? Out of, let's say, 10k dozen released.

A hundred? Implies 7.1% per year.
A thousand? Implies 4.9%.
Ten grand? 2.6%.

So 4ish percent per annum isn't obviously wrong.

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uncle tom
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Re: Deep thought..

Post by uncle tom » 03:11 Sat 24 Feb 2018

How many bottles of 1920 do you think remain in the world? Out of, let's say, 10k dozen released.
At 4.2% (starting at bottling date 1922) 10k dozen (120,000) now reduces to 1951 bottles - a credible number IMO..
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I shall be sober and you will still be ugly - W.S. Churchill

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